Aarhus, September 12, 2011
The Editors of Personality and Individual Differences
Elsevier
1-3 The Strand
London WC2N 5JR
UK
While examining the paper “The decay of Western civilization: Double relaxed Darwinian Selection” by Helmuth Nyborg in Personality and Individual Differences [1], (hereafter referred to as HN2011), it has come to our attention that the data reported in that paper does not originate from the author himself. The raw data, most of the figures, and practically all of section 3 (Method and analysis) stems from various blog posts, a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and compiled reports by a Danish economist by the name Jørn Ebbe Vig. We note that the paper HN2011 does not acknowledge or credit J. Ebbe Vig, neither for data, figures, discussion nor text.
We have analyzed text and figures in HN2011, and compared to material published by J. Ebbe Vig on his web site and Internet blogs belonging to him and his spouse. The comparison is detailed in the following sections.
The population data and model is not authored by Nyborg but stems from the 2010 version of an Excel spreadsheet available from a Danish Internet blog. The original author is Jørn Ebbe Vig, who is also the author of a report in Danish where the data is graphed and discussed (hereafter called perspektiv.pdf, see Appendix 1). We note that the paper HN2011 does not acknowledge or credit J. Ebbe Vig, neither for data, figures nor text. We also note that the date on perspektiv.pdf is 30. March 2011, two days before HN2011 was published on PAID’s web site, suggesting contact between Nyborg and Vig before the publication date of HN2011.
The report perspektiv.pdf by J. Ebbe Vig called "Immigranterne og deres efterkommere i Danmark - 93 års udvikling og perspektiv" (Immigrants and their descendants in Denmark - 93 years' development and perspective) [2], consists of a total of 21 pages: 12 pages plus 9 pages of graphs. There are no references other than for the source of the data, which is from the national Danish statistical authority (Danmarks Statistik).
Perspektiv.pdf is available[1] from the website www.lilliput-information.com, a web site belonging to J. Ebbe Vig (see Appendix 5). We have downloaded two different versions of the PDF document available from the site. The first version in our possession has the modification date 4. August 2011 (enclosed as Appendix 1), the second version (which is the one currently available) has the modification date 25. August 2011. In both cases, the Author of the report is given as “Vig”. This is apparent when viewing the PDF document properties using the application Adobe Acrobat. The second version of the document differs from the first by the removal of the authors name at the end of the text on page 12, including other minor changes to the text on that page. We enclose a comparison of the two versions of perspektiv.pdf in Appendix 2.
The date given on the front page of both versions of perspektiv.pdf is March 30. 2011. Both versions contain the same text referring to HN2011, giving the title and reference of the paper, but without mentioning H. Nyborg as the author (table 1).
Original text from perspektiv.pdf front page | Our English translation |
Regnearket bag denne analyse i 2010-udgaven er grundlaget for den videnskabelige artikel med titlen The decay of Western civilization: Double relaxed Darwinian Selection i april-nummeret 2011 i det britiske tidsskrift Personality and Individual Differences | The spreadsheet behind this analysis in the 2010 version is the basis for the scientific article entitled The decay of Western civilization: Double relaxed Darwinian Selection in the April issue of 2011 in the British journal Personality and Individual Differences. |
Table 1. Text box on the front page of perspektiv.pdf with an unnamed reference to HN2011.
The text box shown on the front page of perspektiv.pdf (see table 1) explicitly states that HN2011 is based on the 2010 version of an Excel spreadsheet which, as we shall document below, is produced by J.E. Vig. The document is basically a commented version of the spreadsheet, with tables and plots showing various aspects of the data model.
Six figures in HN2011 are identical or near identical to figures in perspektiv.pdf or on blog postings by Vig (see Appendix 8 for a side-by-side comparison). It is clear that the data behind these plots is the same. Generally, the layouts of the plots have been modified in HN2011, changes involving axis labels and annotation, and line styles of the individual graphs. We note that the unusual choice of time-span covered by the analysis (93 years) is the same in HN2011 and perspektiv.pdf.
It is important to keep in mind, that the data behind HN2011 comes from the 2010 version of the spreadsheet (table 1). Nyborg’s source of data is probably not perspektiv.pdf itself, but that document serves as documentation for the actual source, which is the 2010 version of the spreadsheet. It should be noted that the current version of perspektiv.pdf (dated Aug. 25, 2011) documents the 2011 version of the spreadsheet. For this reason minor discrepancies must be expected between HN2011 and perspektiv.pdf. What we have shown in Appendix 8, however, is that all the plots in HN2011 are of the types that can be produced from the spreadsheet, and that they are with overwhelming likelihood produced from the data in the spreadsheet.
The document index-population-account-corrections.pdf (hereafter referred to as index-population, see Appendix 3) is an English text available in PDF format from J.E. Vig’s personal web site www.lilliput-infomation.dk[2]. It is a two-page document entitled “In Germany, Britain, Austria, Norway and Denmark you do not depict the reality from the official based information when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related”. The document is signed “J.E. Vig, M. Sc. (Economics), January 9th 2011”. There are no references. When viewing the document properties with Adobe Acrobat, the author is given as “Vig” and both creation and modification dates of the PDF file is 20/8/2011 01:48.
The document index-population is first referenced on a blog entry by “Joern” (email: joern132@gmail.com) on Sep. 15. 2010, with the title “Danskerne vil bedrages” (The danes want to be deceived, see Appendix 4. The document URI is given near the bottom of the last page.) In Appendix 6, page 3, it can be seen that blogger “joern”, with email joern132@gmail.com, is the blogging nickname used by J.E. Vig.
Table 2 shows a side-by-side comparison of Section 3 (“Method and analysis”) from HN2011 to Vigs document index-population. It is clear that the two texts are closely related, and at least three observations strongly suggest that Nyborg’s text is derived from J.E. Vig’s and not the other way around: (1) Nyborg’s text is somewhat tighter and seems more polished and better worded for a scientific journal. (2) Numberings are given as “(n)” in HN2011 but “n)” in index-population; it seems unlikely that Vig would go through the trouble of systematically removing left parentheses throughout the document had he copied the document from Nyborg. (3) In Vig’s document, dates specifying the first day of the month have been formatted with the number 1, then “st” in superscript, and then a period, ( i.e. “1st.”). This is incorrect according to standard English spelling, and in Nyborg’s text, dates are indeed written correctly (1st) everywhere except in one place, where the subscript is removed from “st” , but the period is left in place. (This is found in the third paragraph, in the sentence before the bullet point marked “(1)”.) It is our claim that Nyborg edited Vig’s text, correcting the date format everywhere, except one place, which he erroneously missed.
HN2011 | index-population |
StatistikBanken (SB: http://www.statistik-banken.dk/) publishes yearly statistics for: (1) Total DK Population, (2) Number of foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin distributed by citizenship, including children born abroad, (3) Number of naturalizations of the year including the children born before the naturalization. Children born to foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin in DK are counted as Danish citizens and so are the children born to naturalized citizens after naturalization. SB also has a category for socalled immigrants and their descendants. It, finally, publishes total common birth and total common mortality rates each year. | StatistikBanken (SB; the official source of DK population statistics; http://www.statistikbanken.dk/) publishes immigrant statistics each year for: 1) Total DK Population, 2) Number of foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin distributed on citizenship including children born abroad, 3) Number of naturalizations of the year including the children born before the naturalization. The children born to foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin in DK are counted as Danish citizens and so are the children born to naturalized citizens after the naturalization. SB also maps a number of so-called immigrants and their descendants deviating even more from a proper statistical recording in population-related research. The total common birth rate and the total common mortality rate are also published each year. |
The place-of-birth type of classification makes it increasingly more difficult to tell apart ethnic Danes from Danish citizens of foreign origin, and to reliably identify citizens and their children by Country-of-Origin (COO). This artificially raises the estimate of ethnic Danish fertility and lowers that for citizens of foreign origin, thus preventing an objective analysis of the effect of ERDS, which demands accurate information on citizens by COO. | This legal place-of-birth types of classification means that it becomes increasingly difficult with time to tell apart ethnic Danish citizens from Danish citizens of foreign origin, and that we can no longer reliably identify citizens by COO, nor determine the exact number of children by citizens by COO in the official statistical bulletins. One consequence of this ethnic mix-up is that it artificially raises estimates of ethnic Danish (sub)-fertility, and lowers the typically higher fertility of citizens of foreign origin, as will be documented below. Another consequence of the legal ethnic mix-up is that it prevents an objective analysis of the effect of immigration from various countries on Danish phenotypic and genotypic IQ. A proper demographic analysis requires information about the number of children born to foreign citizens and the number of children born to naturalized citizens year by year. |
The present study uses the official counts from SB, but in a way that partly circumvents the ethnic mix-up problem. A download January 1st 1979 gave the number of citizens and people of foreign origin with an address in DK and registered in the Central Person Register. | The present analysis is actually based on official counts from SB, but uses them in a way that, at least partly, circumvents the mix-up problem. A download was first made January 1st. 1979 to determine the actual number of citizens and people of foreign origin with an address in DK and registered in the central person register. |
Changes in status for 1979 were then checked January 1st 1980 and again each January 1st the following years until January 1st. 2010 with respect to (1) number of foreign citizens the year, (2) estimated number of children born to all foreign citizens in DK, (3) number of naturalized individuals, and (4) estimated number of children born to all naturalized individuals the year (based on the total birth rates provided by United Nations (UN: http://un.org/esa/) for each of 235 COO), and to the total common mortality rates for DK. Tahe difference between the total population counts and the partly estimated number of citizens of foreign origin is the estimated residual number of ethnic Danes. | Changes in the status for 1979 were then checked January 1st. 1980 and again each January 1st. for the following years until January 1st. 2010 with respect to 1) the number of foreign citizens the year, 2) the estimated number of children born to all foreign citizens in DK, 3) the number of naturalized individuals, and 4) the estimated number of children born to all naturalized individuals the year based on the total birth rates given by United Nations (UN:http://un.org/esa/) for each of the 235 COOs, and on the total common mortality rates for DK. The difference between the total published population count and the partly estimated number of citizens of foreign origin provided here is the estimated residual number of ethnic Danes. |
On January 1st 1980, the birth rates for the 235 COOs and the total common mortality rate in DK constituted the ‘‘interest rates’’ of increases for the status in January 1st 1979. Foreign citizens and naturalized citizens 1979 were then added. This was repeated the following year (1981) based on status per January 1st 1980, and for each ensuing year. | On January 1st. 1980, the birth rates for the 235 COOs and the total common mortality rate in DK constituted the “interest rates” of increases for the status in January 1st. 1979. The number of foreign citizens and the number of naturalized citizens in1979 were then added. This process was repeated the following year (1981) based on status per January 1st. 1980, and each ensuing year. |
The analysis thus retro-corrected the official population counts 1979–2010 for each of the 235 COOs in a year-by-year fashion, by balancing the ratios of official UN birth rates (b) against the total common mortality rate for DK (d) for the year immediately before, and adding increases in the number of citizens of foreign origin (ifo) and naturalized people (inp) in accordance with the annuity model: Status count 1979 x (1 + (b-d)/1.000) + ifo + inp | The model for analysis was thus to retro-correct the official population counts for 1979-2010 for each of the 235 COOs in a year-by-year fashion, by balancing the ratios of official UN birth rates (b) against the total common mortality rate for DK (d) for the year immediately before, and add the increases in the number of citizens of foreign origin (ifo) and naturalized people (inp). This annuity model: Status count 1979 x (1 + (b - d)/1.000) + ifo + inp was administered each 1st. January throughout the period 1979-2010. |
The retro-estimated numbers for 1979–2010 were then used for projections of population growth 2011 to 2072, based on the following assumptions: (1) An average of ethnic Danish net emigration of 2.700 per year for the period of 1997–2007, (2) The UN-recommended birth rates for all developed countries of 9.6, reduced by 1/10 of a point from 2032 and again every seventh year forward (even though we had estimated it to be 9.3 at January 1st 2010 by a weighted average based on the UN-recommended foreign birth rates, (3) The SB registration of population count and the total common birth- and mortality rates in DK (where the total mortality rate was the arithmetic average of the rates 2007–2009), (4) The net number of new immigrants per year for each the 235 COOs (where the average was calculated from the numbers for the latest seven years). | The retro-estimated numbers for 1979-2010 were then used for projection of further population growth for the period 2011 to 2072. 1) the average of ethnic Danish net emigration of 2700 per year for the period of 1997-2007; 2) The UN-recommended birth rates for all developed countries of 9.6, reduced by 1/10 of a point from 2032 and every seventh year forward (even though we estimated it to be 9.3 at January 1st. 2010 by a weighted average based on the UN-recommended foreign birth rates; 3) The official SB registration of the population count and the total common birth- and mortality rates in DK, where the total mortality rate is the arithmetic average of the rates 2007-2009; 4) The net number new immigrants per year for each the 235 COOs, where the average is calculated from the numbers for the latest seven years. |
When the annuity approach was used for projection, the last two parts of the formula (ifo + inp) were substituted by the number of net immigration per year, that is, 17.037. | The annuity method presented above was also applied in the projection, but the last two parts of the formula (ifo + inp) were substituted by the number of net immigration per year, that is, 17.170. |
National average IQs were taken from Lynn and Vanhanen (2006), weighted separately for each country each year according to its proportional numerical presence in DK, and then the retro-estimated IQs were categorized into 5 IQ bands. A large meta-analysis of IQ scores of immigrants to the Netherlands is also available (te Nijenhuis, de Jong, Evers, & van der Flier, 2004). | The national average IQs, provided by Lynn and Vanhanen (2006) were then weighted separately for each country each year according to its proportional numerical presence in DK, and presented as retro-estimated IQs categorized into 5 IQ bands for 1979-2010. The weighed IQs were then projected for the period 2011-2072. |
The official number of citizens of foreign descendence January 1 and the official number of naturalized each year, the total number of citizens in Denmark are given by SB. The parameters are the birth rates of the foreign descendants in their origin (in the case of 14 p.c. difference) recommended by UN, and the total and separate birth- and mortality rates in Denmark build the net growth rate by births as shown above. An even more realistic collection of foreign birthsrates (as we demonstrate) shows a result that diviates even 26 p.c. from the official count January 1th 2010 |
Table 2. Paragraph by paragraph comparison of Nyborg’s text from HN2011 (left) and Vig’s text (right). Green text is in the left column but not in the right. Red text is in the right column, but not in the left. Yellow text has different wording.
We note that Nyborg leaves out the following paragraph from Vig’s text:
“...immigration from various countries on Danish phenotypic and genotypic IQ. A proper demographic analysis requires information about the number of children born to foreign citizens and the number of children born to naturalized citizens year by year.”
which documents that Vig independently thought of examining his demographic data in terms of IQ.
Cand. oecon. J. Ebbe Vig, 61, (who sometimes calls himself Ebbe Vig) is a graduate in economics from 1977, and is at present the director of his statistics consultancy company Info-Stat. For many years, J. Ebbe Vig has been working on demographics of immigration as a personal political interest, and he is convinced that the national Danish statistics authority is deliberately fudging immigration data (see for example [3], p. 4-6.)
Vig is a regular contributor to the periodical “Danskeren” (The Dane), published by the society Den Danske Forening (The Danish Society). Vig’s articles occasionally appear unsigned in “Danskeren”, implying that these articles represent the official opinions of the society, and he has been referred to as the “society’s economist”. Further, J.E. Vig is member of the society and is the author of a signed discussion on the society’s web page[3], concerning the development of the Danish population (dated February 15, 2006). On its Internet home page[4], Den Danske Forening presents itself in English as:
... a cross-party movement, founded in 1987 when the tidal wave of mass-immigration from the third world reached alarming proportions. Its founding members were a group of people with a university background and men and women actively engaged in the resistance movement during second world war. They declared that they were opposed to a new occupation of Denmark, whether this occupation was effected by force of arms or by massive collective immigration.
Den Danske Forening is, in other words, a political, not a professional or scientific, organisation.
J. Ebbe Vig publishes personal blogs and documents from several websites, including:
We have documented (Appendix 5) that www.lilliput-information.com is registered to J. Ebbe Vig. The rest are on the public blog-services wordpress.com and blogspot.com, and appear to be run by Vig, and/or his spouse Sonia Wahnloop, or perhaps the two in tandem.
We have found evidence that the Excel spreadsheet used for HN2011 has been purchased.
Sep. 15, 2010, 01:13, blogger “Joern” (a nickname for J.E. Vig, as we have determined above) posts a blog entry[5] with a link to the PDF file index-population – the text that about six months later becomes part of HN2011 (Appendix 4). In the blog entry, the author offers to sell his spreadsheet and other information for DKK 20,000 (~ 2700 €) (see table 3.)
From blog entry on Sep. 15, 2010. | Our translation to English |
Hvordan det reelt forholder sig herunder en årligt ajourført befolkningsmodel, der er forudsætning for forskning i noget spørgsmål, der har oprindelse-tilknytning, sygdomme og andre karakteristika af etniske betydning har prisen kr. 20.000. Modellen er udført med bl.a FN’s officielle fødseslsrater i klodens 235 nationer (repræsenteret i Danmark) i regnearket Excel med grafisk præsentation og med grundig supervision i PDF-fil, det hele leveret på DVD. | How it really is, including a yearly updated population model, which is essential for research in any issue connected to origin-association, diseases and other characteristics of ethnic significance, has the price DKK. 20,000. The model is developed with among other things UN’s official birth rates in the planet’s 235 nations (represented in Denmark) in the spreadsheet Excel with graphical representation and thorough supervision in a PDF file, everything delivered on DVD media. |
Table 3. Translation of blog post from Sep. 15, 2010, where Vig states the price of the Excel spreadsheet. See Appendix 4 for original posting.
Jan. 9, 2011, 12:32 J. E. Vig posts a blog entry in Danish on the blog xantippe.wordpress.com with the title Retro-analyse og projektion 1979-2072 for befolkning i DK, antal, geografi, IQ (Retro-analysis and projection 1979-2072 for population in DK, number, geography, IQ) hereafter referred to as retro-analysis (Appendix 7). En excerpt of the text from retro-analysis is shown in table 4.
Original Danish text | Our translation |
Særligt interesserede kan få tilsendt vor sidste gennemgangs grafiske fremstillinger om masseindvandringens historie (1979-2010) i programmet (Office) Publisher eller blot som e-mail, således at de mere end 25 grafiske figurerne kan ændres i størrelse. Herved træder flere detaljer tydeligere direkte frem fra den bagvedliggende regneark-model. Perspektivet for perioden 2011-2072 er også illustreret i tal, grafik og statistisk beskrivelse under givne, realistiske forudsætninger. | Especially interested parties can receive our latest account’s graphical representations on the history of mass immigration (1979-2010) in the application (Office) Publisher or just as e-mail, so that the more than 25 graphical figures can be modified in size. Hereby more details from the underlying spreadsheet model are exposed. The perspective for the period 2011-2072 is also illustrated in numbers, graphics and statistics under given, realistic preconditions. |
Denne gennemgang tilsendes vederlagtsfrit pr. e-mail som supplement til følgende filer, der er offentlige tilgængelige: | This account is mailed free of charge via e-mail as a supplement to the following files, which are publically available: |
perspektiv.pdf : baggrunden kort, modellen i hovedtræk og resultaterne i modellens regneark er sammenskrevet i form bestående af tabel-uddrag med tilhørende grafiske fremstillinger samt en kortfattet, tilhørende statistisk beskrivelse i PDF-fil. | perspektiv.pdf : the background in brief, main features of the model and results in the spreadsheet of the model is compiled in the form of table extracts with associated graphical representations and a brief, accompanying statistical description in a PDF file. |
Resultaterne skal ikke forsøges underkastet nogen verbal/sproglig omkalfatring, justeringer eller præciseringer endsige nogen smagsbedømmelse af hensyn til dette og hint med min deltagelse, og intet omskrevet herfra kan offentliggøres i mit navn. Resultaterne er korrekte for så vidt modellen og dens forudsætninger accepteres, idet elementerne brugt i modellen ikke er mere eller mindre tilfældige valg af ord og vendinger fra vokabulariet, men universel logik i symbolsprog anvendt på veldefinerede begreber. Vi har intet andet holdbart end netop en sådan model, når den enkle virkelighed systematisk skjules for offentligheden af de såkaldt ansvarlige, gamle såvel som og ikke mindst nye. | These results shall not be subject to any verbal/lingual revision, adjustments or detailing, or judgement with respect to this or that concerning my participation, and nothing rewritten from this site can be published in my name. The results are correct in so far as the preconditions are accepted, because the elements used in the model are not more-or-less arbitrary words and phrases from the vocabulary, but universal logic in symbolic language applied to well defined concepts. We have nothing else valid but exactly such a model, when the basic truth is systematically hidden to the public by the so-called responsible, old as well as new. |
Hvor meget offentligheden har ud af læse gennemgangen, eller om mange eller få kan forbinde modelresultaterne med virkeligheden ved jeg ikke. Rettighed til at bruge modellen på danske befolkningsforhold er netop blevet solgt til internationalt forsknings- eller udviklingsarbejde. Som bl.a.. den generelle beskrivelse af modellen antyder kan ingen befolkningsrelateret dansk forskning længere forsvares med udgangspunkt i den officielle, danske befolkningsbeskrivelse, såfremt karakteristikummet, der søges afdækket i den statistiske helhed, er væsentligt genetisk knyttet. Dette sidste ved flere, der har fulgt den kritiske demografi-gennemgang gennem årene på vor netside eller i Danskeren. De officielle fejlbeskrivelser af befolkningssituationen er ikke overraskende noget nær de samme i alle europæiske lande, selvom variablene og dataene er noget forskellige, og alle disse officielle beskrivelser skrider mere og mere med tiden i forhold til realiteterne. I forskningsverdenen skal der som bekendt ofte tabeller og grafer til for at overbevise om, påvise eller bevise netop det, som andre vidste eller sikkert fornemmede længe forud. Vi beskrev forskningstabet generelt i januar 2005 på: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/samm.html. | How much the public gains from reading this account, or if many or few can combine the model results with reality, I don’t know. The rights to use the model on issues relating to the Danish population has recently been sold for international research- and development. As the general description of the model suggests, no population related Danish research can any longer be justified with inception in the official, Danish population description, if the characteristic sought to be revealed in the statistical totality has a significant genetic association. This is known by several, who have followed the critical demographical discussion through the years on our web-site or in Danskeren. The official misrepresentations of the population situation is not surprisingly quite similar in all European countries, although the variables and the data er somewhat different, and all these official descriptions are slipping more and more with time in relation to reality. The research world requires as we know tables and graphs to convince, point out and prove exactly what others knew or sensed long ago. We generally described the research-loss long ago in january 2005 on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/samm.html. |
Table 4. Left part of the original blog post (retro-analysis) in Danish, shown paragraph by paragraph. Right, our translation to English. Our markings with yellow. See Appendix 7 for the original.
Retro-analysis states that especially interested parties can request extra material in the form of a Microsoft Publisher file, presumably containing the original of perspektiv.pdf. With access to the original file, it is apparently possible to enlarge the plots, enabling the viewer to see more details of the underlying spreadsheet model. The offer also includes what is called “a brief, accompanying statistical description in a PDF file.” We interpret this to be the document index-population. In other words, in our interpretation, three items are offered:
Nothing is stated about the Excel spreadsheet containing original data and the computational model, and so we conclude that it is not included in the free offer but must be purchased for the sum of 20,000 DDK mentioned in the blog post of Sep. 15, 2010 (Appendix 4).
During the month of August, we have noticed that Vig in his blog postings has gradually toned down his connection to HN2011, and we take this as an indication that he and Nyborg are becoming uncomfortable with a situation where the sources of data, methods and text used to produce HN2011 are freely available on the Internet under Vig’s name. We can think of no other explanation why Vig would erase his name from the Aug. 4 version of the document perspektiv.pdf.
The Internet is volatile in nature, and information found there can change in an instant. We have secured copies of most of the information on the websites analyzed in connection with the present case of scientific misconduct. Not everything is included with this letter however, as that would constitute an unmanageable amount. We hope readers of this document will be able to locate the information themselves from the URIs given. If, upon publication of this letter, the material on the Internet is removed or changed, it is fair to interpret that action as an admission of guilt.
Sep. 15, 2010 First mention of the document index-population, in a blog-entry on informationomdanmark.blogspot.com[6] (see Appendix 4)
Jan. 8, 2011 the text from index-population is published on the blog lilliput-information[7]. There is no indication of any co-authors (see Appendix 6)
Jan. 9, 2011 the model is advertised on the blog Xanthippe[8]. Vig offers to send readers an expanded version of the model per email (see table 5). There is a link to the PDF file called perspektiv.pdf (Appendix 2).
Jan. 16, 2011 Nyborg submits his article HN2011 to PAID.
Feb. 23, 2011 HN2011 Received by PAID in revised form.
Feb. 24, 2011 HN2011 accepted.
Mar. 30, 2011 is the date given on the front page of both versions of the document perspektiv.pdf in our possession, and both bear the same text referring to HN2011, but without citing Nyborg as the author (table 1).
Apr. 2, 2011 HN2011 available online.
Aug. 4, 2011 A new version of perspektiv.pdf is uploaded. This is the oldest version of that file in our possession.
Aug. 25, 2011 A new version of perspektiv.pdf is uploaded. In this version, J.E. Vig removes his name.
We have presented proof that the data material forming the basis of the article HN2011 is produced and distributed by J. Ebbe Vig. Vig has worked on this type of demographic analysis for years, while Helmuth Nyborg is a psychologist and has never previously published demographical data.
We have also presented proof that section 3 of HN2011 is directly copied from a document authored and distributed by Vig.
Table 2 documents that J. Ebbe Vig is the original author of the “annuity” data model, consistent with his background in economics. Consequently, the model calculations reported in HN2011 all come from this computational model, essentially based on the simplistic idea that population growth can be adequately modelled as a linear combination of exponentials. Anyone giving independent thought to the concept of population growth would immediately realize that the “annuity” model is both naive, unrealistic and dissatisfactory. We therefore find that the mere choice of the annuity model for the calculations of this paper, including figures and conclusions are rooted in the plagiarism documented here.
A paragraph from J. Ebbe Vig’s text, deleted by Nyborg, shows that Vig also had the idea of computing projections of future population IQ mean using the demographic model, in combination with Lynn’s data on national IQ. Therefore, this idea is also tainted by the plagiarism.
In paragraph four of retro-analysis (Appendix 7) it is stated that “... the rights to use the model on issues relating to the Danish population has just been sold to international research- and development” (see table 4). Indeed, we have no irrevocable proof that the buyer of the material is indeed Nyborg, as information of this kind only would become available through a police investigation. However, we find it difficult to believe that another buyer would agree to buy material already under publication in a scientific journal by somebody else[9]. We therefore conclude that the buyer can be nobody other than Nyborg. We know the price asked was 20,000 DKK, but not the ultimate size of the payment. We have thus documented, that Nyborg has purchased the spreadsheet data file from Vig, for an unknown price.
The document perspektiv.pdf presents the results of the spreadsheet analysis in graphical and textual form. Table 2 shows that several of these plots have been used virtually unchanged by Nyborg, except that the graph layouts and the axis annotations have been modified.
Perhaps the only original contribution to HN2011 by Nyborg is the discussion of natural selection, which appears prominently in the title of the article. However, Nyborg never makes use of Darwinian selection or evolution in the analysis. Nyborg (Vig) models the population numbers of static ethnic cohorts in a linear combination, mathematically extrapolated into the future. Nyborg does not describe any natural selection within or between the ethnic cohorts, on the contrary, he assumes these cohorts to have precisely the same traits and fecundity in 60 years that they have today. Since Nyborg lets the population of the cohorts increase at different rates, it is trivial mathematics that the combined numerical value of the mental trait will change in such a way that the fastest growing cohorts will dominate the sum. It has absolutely nothing to do with Darwinian selection. We therefore conclude that Nyborg purposely misleads the reader into thinking that the demographic analysis has a biological foundation.
Finally, we have documented an (incomplete) attempt by Vig to cover up the plagiarism.
We find that the paper HN2011 violates the universal rules of proper scientific conduct, and at least 3 of the authors' duties itemized on Elsevier's Ethical Guidelines[10], namely:
In addition, we find it extremely troubling that members of the scientific community offer themselves as vehicles for the propagation of the political writings of special interest organisations to the scientific literature, which in turn these organisations are able to pass off as scientific proof of their original claims. It is our sincere conviction that PAID or any other respectable journal, will not condone or tolerate such a practice.
Sincerely yours,
Jens Kvorning1, Jens Mammen2 and Morten Kjeldgaard3
CC:
[1] H. Nyborg, The decay of Western civilization: Double relaxed Darwinian Selection, Personality and Individual Differences (2011) In press.
[2] J.E. Vig Immigranterne og deres efterkommere i Danmark - 93 års udvikling og perspektiv. 30.3.2011. Current version: http://www.lilliput-information.com/perspektiv.pdf
[3] Ebbe Vig (2006) Simpel forsigtig korrektion af det officielle antal af fremmede i Danmark pr. 1/1 2006. Danskeren, May 2006. <http://www.dendanskeforening.dk/files/files/DK%2002-2006.pdf>
1. J.E. Vig Immigranterne og deres efterkommere i Danmark - 93 års udvikling og perspektiv. Version dated 4. August 2011 (referred to as perspektiv.pdf in this letter.)
2. Comparison of two versions, dated Aug. 4, 2011 and Aug. 25, 2011 of the document perspektiv.pdf.
3. J.E. Vig, In Germany, Britain, Austria, Norway and Denmark you do not depict the reality from the official based information when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related. January 9th 2011. (referred to as index-population in this letter)
4. Copy of blog entry from the web page http://informationomdanmark.blogspot.com/2010/09/danskerne-vil-bedrages.html
dated Sep. 15, 2010.
5. WHOIS output for the domain lilliput-information.com.
6. Copy of blog entry dated Jan. 8, 2011 on the blog lilliput-information.blogspot.com. The blog entry has the same content as the file index-population (Appendix 3).
7. Copy of blog entry dated Jan. 9. 2011 on the blog xantippe.wordpress.com (referred to as retro-analysis in this letter)
8. Side-by-side comparison of plots from HN2011 with plots from perspektiv.pdf and a blog posting by J.E. Vig.
[8] http://xantippe.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/retro-analyse-og-projektion-1979-2072-for-befolkning-i-dk-antal-geografi-iq/
[9] Indeed, we find it difficult to believe that anyone would purchase data for scientific purposes.
[10] Ethical guidelines for journal publication of Elsevier
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/authorsview.authors